Heat and Magic battle for Sunshine State bragging rights

Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Since their heart-to-heart meeting among players and coaches following a loss at Milwaukee last week, the Miami Heat haven't suffered defeat and hope to continue that trend tonight against the Orlando Magic in the opener of a six-game road trip.

Miami has won three in a row and 11 of its last 13 games since a season-worst three-game slide and posted its sixth straight win in South Beach with Tuesday's 107-91 over LeBron James' former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers. James had 24 points, six assists and five rebounds, while Dwyane Wade led the Heat with 26 points. Chris Bosh tacked on 15 points and nine boards for Miami, which got 14 points from both Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem.

"We (the Miami Heat) just understand that no game is over until it is over," Wade said. "We know teams are going to fight against us because they have a lot of pride. We did a good job of really locking in defensively and turning up the engine."

Wade has scored 20-plus points in a season-high five consecutive games, and in six of his last seven contests. The Heat's 19-6 record is the best 25-game start in franchise history. The previous best was 18-7 (three times).

The Heat are 7-4 away from home this season and are scheduled to make other stops in Washington, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Indiana and Cleveland.

Orlando had won three in a row since a four-game slide, but fell back into the loss column with Monday's 107-102 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in the opener of a three-game homestand.

Magic point guard Jameer Nelson returned from a five-game absence due to concussion-like symptoms and registered 15 points and a season-high 12 assists. The Magic, who went 3-2 without Nelson in the lineup, received 33 points and 14 rebounds from Dwight Howard.

"The only thing I fault our guys for was the start of the third quarter. The first six minutes, we came with no energy whatsoever. The rest, it's on me," Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy said.

Orlando is playing eight of 10 games at home and owns an 8-5 record at the Amway Center this season.

The Magic and Heat split four meetings a season ago and the last eight matchups overall. Miami has lost eight of 10 games in central Florida. James averaged 30.0 ppg last season against Orlando, while Howard had averages of 18.5 points and 14.8 rebounds. Howard is averaging 16.8 points and 12.5 boards in 28 career games in this series. James is posting 28.4 ppg in that same amount of games lifetime against the Magic.

Van Gundy served as the Heat's head coach for two-plus years from 2003-05, compiling a 112-73 (.605) record.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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