Argos and Als square off for first in the East

Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their touchdown drought now a memory, the Montreal Alouettes turn their attention to the Toronto Argonauts as the two clubs, tied for the lead in the CFL's Eastern Division, tangle at McGill Stadium on Thursday night.

Even though Montreal finally put the brakes on an unhealthy run of being held out of the end zone, last week the team leaned heavily on the kicking game in order to get them over the hump. Damon Duval tied a career-high with seven field goals as he helped lead the Alouettes to a commanding 37-14 win over the visiting Hamilton Tiger-Cats last Thursday. Duval finished the night with 22 points as Montreal logged its third straight win after losing the season opener to Saskatchewan in overtime, 54-51.

Quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who came up lame late in the first half but returned to action, also had a strong outing as he converted 28-of-38 passes for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns, getting his team into the end zone for the first time in six quarters when he struck in the fourth period.

As for the Argos, they tied their entire win total from a year ago (3-15) when they slipped by British Columbia on Friday night, 24-20, at home at the Rogers Centre. After starting slow and amassing just 10 points through the first three quarters, Toronto got a late boost from quarterback Cleo Lemon and, more importantly Byron Parker who returned an interception 41 yards for the go- ahead score with under two-and-a-half minutes remaining in regulation.

For Parker, the pick-six was the seventh of his career, leaving him one shy of the all-time CFL record.

Lemon, who absorbed a nasty hit from Solomon Elimimian but still managed to work his way back into the huddle, converted 19-of-28 passes for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was however, picked off twice and sacked three times in the victory. Running back Cory Boyd posted his third straight 100-yard rushing effort as he gained a game-high 148 yards on 19 carries, his 41-yard burst in the fourth quarter setting up a clutch TD pass from Lemon to Brandon Rideau.

Toronto has played far too many tight games in the early going and, after four weeks of action, are the only team in the league with a winning record that has allowed more points (108) than it has scored (103), and that certainly has to be a concern for the coaching staff as they prepare for a Montreal squad that has finally found an offense after hitting a dry spell.

Boyd has found his way through defenses for the most part, save for the season opener when he was held in check, but that was a game in which all of the Toronto offense was handled by Calgary to begin with. Considering this was an Argos unit that was expected to be the easiest target in the CFL this season, anything positive that goes on from here out should be considered a huge step in the right direction. Boyd currently leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 455 and is first overall in rushing with 431 yards on 66 carries, but he has just a single touchdown to his credit and that's not enough to keep the pressure off his quarterback.

Lemon is not going to be able to elude defenders much longer if his offensive line doesn't work harder to keep him upright. Of the quarterbacks who have started all four games thus far, Lemon is at the bottom of the list with his 59.1 percent accuracy and has one more interception (four) than touchdown (three). As a team, the Argos have the weakest passing attack in the league, while Calvillo and Co. again have the top efficiency rating at 101.7 at this stage.

If Lemon isn't careful this week, he's going to be exposed to a heavy dose of John Bowman who, after leading the team last season with 12 sacks, the most in a decade for a single Montreal performer, already has five quarterback takedowns so far this season. Thanks in part to Bowman, who was named the CFL Defensive Player of the Week after posting four sacks and two forced fumbles in the win over Hamilton, Montreal is easily at the top of the turnover list with a plus 10. No other team in the league has more than a plus-one in turnovers, with Toronto being one of those squads.

Obviously as he showed last week, Parker has the ability to change the complexion of a game with one quick burst to the end zone, but the Argos cannot be waiting on Parker to carry them into the win column yet again, especially with Calvillo finally getting his confidence and beginning to hit his marks as everyone expects of the reigning MVP.

In terms of the all-time series between these two clubs, taking into account regular season matchups dating back to 1946, the Alouettes own a mark of 101-80-3 at this juncture. The teams met three times in 2009 and Montreal claimed each and every meeting by double figures, the last of which was a 42-17 final on November 7 on the road. The Als have in fact won six straight encounters, the last victory for the Argos coming by a 16-9 score on October 20, 2007, which also happens to be the last time Toronto enjoyed a win streak of at least three games as well.

The teams are set to face each other three more times during 2010, with an August 14 date in Toronto and an October 29 meeting at the Roger Centre as well, not to mention a November 7 affair back in Montreal to close out the regular season.

The Argos have been getting by with smoke and mirrors the last few weeks and at some point an opponent is going to make them pay. Expect Montreal and Calvillo to call in that debt and take advantage of a weak Toronto offense on the way to taking the top spot in the division.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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