A Super Victory for Pletcher and Borel

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 0 for 24? Make that 1 for...who's counting!

Seconds after Super Saver cruised past the finish line in the 136th Kentucky Derby, all of Todd Pletcher's previous setbacks meant absolutely nothing. The four-time Eclipse Award-winner can no longer be viewed as the most preeminent trainer in the country without a Derby victory.

Pletcher seemed to not even be fazed by finally getting the monkey off his back and handled the win as one would have expected - cool, calm and collected.

The horse that got him to this point wasn't the highly-touted Eskendereya, who had to bow out of the race one week earlier, but WinStar Farm's Super Saver, who wound up the 8-1 second-choice in the Run for the Roses.

The homebred had a few things in his favor this past Saturday, first of which was an affinity for the wet going - the colt already owned a prior victory in the slop last September at Belmont Park.

Second, a win over the Churchill Downs surface is always a plus and Super Saver had that going for him as well.

Third, and perhaps most important, he had Calvin Borel in the saddle.

Winning the Kentucky Derby has become old hat for Borel as the veteran jockey flat-out owns the race with three victories in the last four years.

The Louisiana native had Super Saver on the rail (his trademark spot) for almost the entire length of the Derby and the bay colt responded with a 2 1/2- length win over the late closing Ice Box. The final time for the 1 1/4-mile event was 2:04 2/5 seconds over the sloppy track.

Speaking of Ice Box, the Florida Derby winner suffered through a nasty trip having to steady on three separate occasions during the race. His second-place finish should put to rest any negative thoughts of horses coming into the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff.

As was the case with Super Saver, another horse that hugged the rail almost the entire way was Paddy O'Prado. The third-place finisher had pretty much the same trip as the winner, but was always a few lengths behind. Still, a very good performance from a colt whose lone conventional dirt race was a seventh- place finish last July.

Longshot Make Music for Me closed well from last to wind up fourth completing a superfecta worth $202,559.20.

It was the fourth straight year the winner had just two prep races in his three-year-old campaign - something to keep in mind when handicapping the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

OTHER TOP PERFORMANCES

Noble's Promise wasn't even expected to enter the race after a dismal fifth- place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt was suffering from a lung infection, not to mention receiving cuts and scrapes during the running of the race.

However, the gritty three-year-old, with a pedigree that most experts thought wouldn't allow him to compete at 10 furlongs, came through with a sensational effort taking the lead approaching the top of the stretch before fading to fifth at the wire.

Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 favorite, had another eventful trip, his fourth in his last five appearances. The two-year-old champ was up against it way back on Wednesday when he drew post position one, and the race played out exactly as expected.

After getting roughed up by Noble's Promise early on, he was then mugged by Stately Victor forcing jockey Garrett Gomez to steady his mount. The three- time grade 1 winner was all the way back in 18th position ahead of just Ice Box and Make Music for Me after the first quarter-mile before closing strongly around the turn.

It's interesting to note that five of the final top eight finishers were 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th after a blistering 46-second first-half mile. The only horse far back early on that failed to fire was Awesome Act, who wound up next-to-last in the 20-horse field.

On the other hand, kudos go out to Super Saver and Noble's Promise for being the only two colts in the first flight of horses to earn purse money - Super Saver $1,425,200 for the win and Noble's Promise $60,000 for finishing fifth.

WHERE WAS THE VALUE?

The wait for the Derby is a long one, especially over the winter when most of the betting action is in the form of assorted prep races.

Another way to have action is to play one, two, or all three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. All are risky plays as witnessed by the late defections of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya over the last two years.

Still, there are ways to beat the system.

Super Saver, who went off at 8-1 on race day, was an incredible 35-1 in Pool 3 based on his initial three-year-old prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. The 2010 Kentucky Derby winner was slightly lower odds in the first two wagers closing at 20-1 in Pool 1, followed by 24-1 in Pool 2.

A two-dollar Pool 3 exacta wager with Super Saver over Ice Box also cleaned house compared to Derby Day as the payoff came back a whopping $1,077.40 instead of the minuscule $152.40 at the track.

On the other hand, the exacta in Pools 1 and 2 failed to light up the board since Ice Box was not a single entrant in the first two future wagers. Those payoffs with Super Saver over the "field" were very similar to the actual price at Churchill Downs. The Pool 1 exacta returned just $176.40 while the number in Pool 2 came back a tad higher at $259.20.

LOOKING AHEAD TO BALTIMORE

The Preakness is less than two weeks away on May 15 at Pimlico, and as of now, a full field is expected with Super Saver leading the charge.

Others considering the second leg of the Triple Crown are Lookin At Lucky, Paddy OPrado, Make Music for Me, Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado, Dublin, Pleasant Prince, Jackson Bend, Hurricane Ike, A Little Warm, Aikenite, Bushwacked and Turf Melody

Remember, two of the last four Preakness winners did not race in the Kentucky Derby, a far cry from the previous trend that had just one non-Derby starter (Red Bullet) win the race since Deputed Testamony rolled home in the slop back in 1983.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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NFL Football Betting : Odds on NFL Division to Win the Super Bowl

NFL Super Bowl Betting

The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.

Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.

The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.